We compared a business-as-usual scenario projected to 2035 with intervention scenarios in which 35% of gasoline vehicles were switched to EV, and 50% of car trips less than 8 kilometers were replaced by walking or bicycling. We quantified CO2 emission reductions as well as the air pollution and health benefits of urban transportation policies promoting electric vehicles (EV) and walking and bicycling in Seattle, Washington. A sensitivity analysis with alternative input distributions suggests that the outcomes from this study are robust.Ĭlimate mitigation policies that focus on the transportation sector yield near-term health co-benefits that could motivate policy action. Electrification of the Tasmanian on-road fleet has the largest predicted fleet average reduction in LCA greenhouse gas emissions of 243–300 g CO2-e/km. For the Australian jurisdictions, the average LCA GHG emission factors vary substantially for conventional vehicles (364–390 g CO2-e/km), but particularly for electric vehicles (98–287 g CO2-e/km), which reflects the differences in fuel mix for electricity generation in the different states and territories. Large reductions between 74% and 80% are observed for the more renewables scenario. For the ‘fossil fuels only’ marginal electricity scenario, electric vehicles are still expected to significantly reduce emission rates by between 10% and 32%. For the 2018 Australian electricity mix, which is still largely fossil fuels based, the weight of evidence suggests that electric vehicles will reduce GHG emission rates by 29% to 41%. Parametric input distributions are developed using statistical techniques. This study uses a probabilistic life-cycle assessment (pLCA) to explicitly quantify uncertainty in the LCA inputs and results. A technology assessment is conducted for battery electric and conventional fossil-fueled passenger vehicles for three Australian scenarios and seven Australian states and territories.

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